A-Level Maths Specification

OCR A H240

Section 2.03: Probability

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#2.03a

Understand and be able to use mutually exclusive and independent events when calculating probabilities.

Includes understanding and being able to use the notation:

\(P(A)\), \(P(A')\), \(P(X = 2)\), \(P(X = x)\).

Includes linking their knowledge of probability to probability distributions.

Mutually exclusive events Independent events

#2.03b

Be able to use appropriate diagrams to assist in the calculation of probabilities.

Includes tree diagrams, sample space diagrams, Venn diagrams.

Tree diagrams Venn diagrams Two-way tables

#2.03c

Understand and be able to use conditional probability, including the use of tree diagrams, Venn diagrams and two-way tables.

Includes understanding and being able to use the notations:

\(A∩B\), \(A∪B\), \(A|B\).

Includes understanding and being able to use the formulae:

\(P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B|A)\),
\(P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)\).

Conditional probability

#2.03d

Understand the concept of conditional probability, and calculate it from first principles in given contexts.

Includes understanding and being able to use the conditional probability formula:

\(P(A|B) = \dfrac{P(A∩B)}{P(B)} \).

[Use of this formula to find \(P(A|B)\) from \(P(B|A)\) is excluded.]

Conditional probability

#2.03e

Be able to model with probability, including critiquing assumptions made and the likely effect of more realistic assumptions.

Modelling with probability