understand the language of probability

Outcomes, equal likelihood, events, random

understand and use the probability scale

\(P(\text{certainty}) = 1\)

\(P(\text{impossibility}) = 0\)

understand and use estimates or measures of probability from theoretical models

find probabilities from a Venn diagram

understand the concepts of a sample space and an event, and how the probability of an event happening can be determined from the sample space

For the tossing of two coins, the sample space can be listed as:

Heads \((H)\), Tails \((T)\): \((H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)\)

list all the outcomes for single events and for two successive events in a systematic way

estimate probabilities from previously collected data

calculate the probability of the complement of an event happening

\(P(A')= 1 - P(A)\)

use the addition rule of probability for mutually exclusive events

\(P(\text{Either A or B occurring}) = P(A) + P(B)\)
when \(A\) and \(B\) are mutually exclusive

understand and use the term ‘expected frequency’

Determine an estimate of the number of times an event with a probability of 0.4 will happen over 300 tries

draw and use tree diagrams

determine the probability that two or more independent events will occur

use simple conditional probability when combining events

Picking two balls out of a bag, one after the other, without replacement

apply probability to simple problems